Brazil, the world’s largest soy producer and exporter, is set to see its planted area stop growing in the 2026/27 season for the first time in more than two decades, reflecting a tough operating environment for farmers, according to Rabobank.
Weaker farm economics, tighter credit and uncertainty in agricultural input markets are expected to halt soybean acreage expansion, marking what the bank describes as an important shift in producers’ strategic focus.
In a report published this week, senior Grains and Oilseeds analyst Marcela Marini said planted area is expected to stabilize in 2026/27, ending two decades of average annual growth of about 4%.
The expansion helped lift Brazil’s share of global soybean production from 28% in 2010 to 42% in 2026.
Rabobank attributed the shift to a difficult environment for agriculture, and soybeans in particular, characterized by lower prices, squeezed margins — and even negative returns in some regions — as well as tighter and more expensive credit.
The bank also cited growing uncertainty in agricultural input markets as another factor contributing to “a less favorable environment for rapid expansion.”
Rabobank does not expect the trend to lead to a contraction in planted area, however, arguing that farmland remains producers’ most valuable asset.
Nor does it expect yields to suffer. The bank forecasts Brazil’s soybean production at 178 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, down 2.1% from the record 182 million metric tons harvested in 2025/26, when farmers planted 49 million hectares (121 million acres).
If realized, the smaller crop could help bring global soybean supply and demand into better balance, providing “moderate support” for prices, according to the report.
Land Market Impact
Marini said tighter financial conditions are also increasing the availability of land for sale or land lease as producers seek liquidity and adjust their balance sheets.
According to Rabobank, the increase in available land should further slow acreage expansion, particularly the conversion of pasture into cropland. Instead, soybean growth is expected to shift toward optimizing and reallocating existing farmland.
The bank said that transition preserves Brazil’s long-term expansion potential.
Over time, however, future growth is expected to depend less on bringing new land into production and increasingly on productivity gains and more intensive land use, particularly through double-cropping systems and improvements in operational efficiency.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
