The first Mexican cattle shipments to enter the United States since import restrictions began easing have arrived at feedlots significantly heavier than usual, strengthening expectations that slaughter volumes and beef packer margins will recover in 2027.
The additional supply would benefit Brazil’s MBRF, which owns National Beef, the fourth-largest U.S. beef processor, and JBS, the market leader. The shipments should begin supporting slaughter volumes in March 2027.
The initial cattle averaged 328 kilograms (723 pounds) per head, according to people familiar with the market. That is well above the 220-to-250-kilogram (485-to-551-pound) range that was typical before the ban.
The U.S. imposed the restrictions to prevent New World screwworm from entering the country and began easing them on Aug. 24.
Mexican-born and -raised cattle are estimated to account for 5% of annual U.S. slaughter, equivalent to at least 1.2 million additional head in 2027.
Analysts have gradually raised their forecasts for U.S. beef industry margins, supported by the resumption of Mexican imports and Tyson Foods’ plant closures.
In a report last week, J.P. Morgan analysts Lucas Ferreira, Larissa Perez and Froylan Mendez projected that MBRF’s U.S. beef business would post a 1.5% EBITDA margin in 2027, up from 0.5% in the first half of 2026.
JBS USA Chief Executive Officer Wesley Batista Filho recently told The AgriBiz that easing the restrictions would address “the most acute part” of the margin problem facing the U.S. beef industry.
During an Aug. 11 earnings call, Batista Filho told analysts he expected Mexican cattle to arrive at heavier weights, allowing slaughter volumes to normalize by the second quarter of 2027. The first shipments support that view.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
