An estimated 15% to 20% of the fertilizer needed for Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean season remains unbooked just weeks before planting, raising the risk that nationwide deliveries will miss an already reduced forecast.
Industry estimates had converged around 45 million metric tons of fertilizer deliveries in 2026, down from 49 million in 2025. Persistent delays in purchases for soybeans, the country’s main crop, are prompting analysts to reconsider that figure.
“If the market isn’t moving on Aug. 25, when will it?” Jeferson Souza, a market intelligence analyst at Agrinvest, said Tuesday at the Brazilian Fertilizer Congress in São Paulo.
Souza estimates that about 15% of the fertilizer required for soybeans has not been sold. The remaining demand is also the most dependent on credit, making it unclear whether all those purchases will be completed or growers will reduce their orders.
Credit is the main bottleneck for both distributors and banks. Large distributors have become more risk-averse and are requiring collateral before approving financing and releasing products, said Eduardo Monteiro, Mosaic’s country manager for Brazil and Paraguay. Banks are also tightening farm lending because of high delinquency rates in the agricultural sector.
Mosaic estimates that 20% of the soybean fertilizer market remains unbooked. “In good years, everything would already be sold by now,” said Felipe Pecci, Mosaic’s commercial vice president.
Farmers are approaching the last practical window to make purchases. Further delays in moving products to farms could strain logistics and raise freight costs, Pecci said.
The Center-South is the furthest behind, while purchases in the Cerrado, Brazil’s central agricultural belt, are nearly complete.
Agroconsult Chief Executive André Pessôa said the firm’s forecast of 45 million metric tons in 2026 now has a downside bias. Some fertilizer inventories are being drawn down as buyers delay decisions on new volumes.
Souza said he had also used 45 million metric tons as his base case through the first half of the year, but credit conditions have made that estimate increasingly uncertain. A slowing import pace and a shrinking vessel line-up are additional signs that the market may be smaller than expected.
Mosaic expects deliveries of 42 million to 45 million metric tons this year. Monteiro cited tight credit and high fertilizer prices, which he attributed partly to geopolitical conflicts including the US-Iran war and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“High prices worsen farmers’ terms of trade and reduce consumption,” Monteiro said. “That is dangerous because it cuts not only costs but also productivity.”
Monteiro expects Brazilian farmers to cut phosphorus applications by 20% to 25% in the 2026/27 soybean season, potentially reducing yields by 5% to 7%.
Pessôa said the reductions had been planned within reasonable technical limits but warned that lower phosphorus use would create a need for replenishment in the following season after heavy nutrient removal from soils.
“Next year, growers will have to replace it,” he said. “We are already close to the limit.”
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff
