Many analysts and sugar-and-ethanol groups are already convinced Brazil’s next sugarcane crop, in 2027/28, will be small enough to move prices, reflecting a fertilizer deficit caused by tight margins. The world’s biggest sugar trader sees only a marginal adjustment.
“Some adjustment is natural, and some groups may struggle, but I don’t think it will be significant enough to compromise Brazil’s productivity,” Tomás Manzano, CEO of Copersucar, told reporters in an interview to discuss the company’s 2025/26 crop-year results.
Manzano has a privileged view from the top of the group. In the last crop year, Copersucar’s 39 associated mills crushed almost 110 million tons of cane, equivalent to 16.5% of output in Brazil’s Center-South region. “It was the eighth consecutive year in which we gained share in crushing,” he said.
Among Copersucar’s associated mills, care for cane fields will be preserved. “Cane-field management is a dogma of our model. If you lose control, recovering later is more expensive,” Manzano said.
In his view, Brazil’s milling base is broad, which should prevent a widespread impact on productivity next season. “In a challenging moment, cane-field treatment may suffer some impact. But the picture is heterogeneous. There are almost 400 mills in the country,” he said.
Results Support Positive View
Copersucar’s numbers back Manzano’s view. The group posted revenue of 66 billion reais and its third-best result ever, with net income of 631 million reais in the 2025/26 crop year, which ended in March, up 56.9% from a year earlier.
Crushing rose 0.9%, even as productivity declined. The company did not disclose the extent of the drop, though it cited “climate issues” in its financial statement notes.
According to Manzano, the increase in crushing reflects Copersucar’s business model, under which the company handles sugar and ethanol marketing while mills focus on agricultural and industrial operations.
“The mills, day and night, are taking care of the soil and cane and turning that into ATR. Beyond the farm gate, Copersucar has the expertise to open markets and manage the complexity of networks and derivatives,” he said.
In the 2025/26 crop year, Copersucar marketed 17 million tons of sugar. That total included 15 million tons sold through Alvean, its export-focused joint venture with Cargill, and 2 million tons in the Brazilian market.
Copersucar aims to keep growing, including by sourcing more sugar from non-associated mills through Alvean. Manzano also sees global demand continuing to expand, with sugar prices likely to recover.
“We don’t see a systemic problem, but rather a very balanced stock situation. Some price recovery is expected. The world needs the product, and there aren’t many other sources able to meet demand so competitively,” he said.
In ethanol, Copersucar marketed 21 billion liters last crop year. The company sees three growth drivers for the biofuel. The first is road transport, with a projection — or hope — of greater adoption. Although more than 85% of Brazil’s fleet is flex-fuel, only one-third of refueling is done with ethanol.
Manzano also pointed to opportunities abroad, including gasoline blending mandates in countries such as the US, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Argentina.
In Brazil, he sees E32, the increase in the ethanol blend from the current 30% to 32%, as on track. “From a technical standpoint, we already have all the tests done and proof that there are no problems,” he said.
The other avenues targeted by Copersucar are maritime transport, where Manzano expects demand to grow first, and aviation.
