Shares of JBS, Tyson Foods and MBRF surged on Monday after the US government said it would gradually resume cattle imports from Mexico, potentially easing a severe livestock shortage that has squeezed beef-processing margins.
JBS rose 10% in New York, while Tyson gained nearly 7%. In Brazil, shares of MBRF — which controls US beef producer National Beef — advanced 5.5% on B3, the Brazilian stock exchange.
The US Department of Agriculture said late Friday that the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry would reopen to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24. Operational preparations are also underway for the later reopening of Santa Teresa and Columbus, both in New Mexico, though the USDA has not announced dates.
Mexican cattle have historically accounted for about 4% of US cattle slaughter, equivalent to roughly 1.2 million head a year. Imports were suspended after cases of New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite, spread in Mexico.
The renewed inflow will not resolve a structural cattle deficit caused by years of US herd liquidation, Bradesco BBI analysts Henrique Brustolin and Giovanni D’Ottaviano said in a Monday report.
Still, Mexican cattle are the only significant source of additional supply likely to reach the market before US herd rebuilding begins to increase domestic cattle availability, they said.
That additional supply is particularly important as beef processors operate at historically weak margins. A material improvement, however, will depend on the reopening of more border crossings.
Gradual Reopening
Before the suspension, Douglas handled about 15% of US cattle imports from Mexico, according to Bradesco BBI. Reopening that port alone could eventually add about 180,000 cattle a year to US slaughter supplies.
That volume would increase the beef industry’s capacity utilization rate by only about one percentage point. The US industry is currently operating at close to 80% of capacity, a historically low level even after recent plant closures.
Santa Teresa and Columbus are considerably more important, together accounting for about 52% of Mexican cattle imports before the restrictions.
Their reopening will be critical in determining how quickly cattle availability improves, the analysts said.
Impact Expected in 2027
The initial benefit will be felt by feedlots rather than slaughterhouses.
Nearly all Mexican cattle imported by the US are calves or feeder animals destined for pasture or feedlots, rather than cattle ready for immediate slaughter. The reopening should therefore first increase replacement-cattle availability and feedlot placements.
A more substantial increase in slaughter-ready cattle is expected only several months later.
“We believe the benefit for the beef-processing industry will remain relatively limited in 2026 and become more significant during the first half of 2027,” the analysts said.
JBS is likely to benefit first because of its exposure in Arizona, they added. A significant gain for both JBS and MBRF would depend on the reopening of Santa Teresa and Columbus.
Should those ports reopen, industry capacity utilization could rise to about 83%, helping margins recover from current depressed levels.
Domestic US cattle availability may nevertheless continue to decline as ranchers retain more animals to rebuild the herd, the analysts said.
US cattle futures reflected a positive but measured market response. At about 1 p.m. in Brazil, September feeder-cattle futures were down 1.4% on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
