Brazil’s cattle cycle is beginning to turn, according to Bradesco BBI, after official data showed female slaughter falling in the second quarter for the first time since 2021.
The shift could tighten cattle supplies and raise procurement costs for beef processors in coming quarters, although Agrifatto says more data are needed before declaring the herd cycle has definitively reversed.
Brazil slaughtered 10.72 million cattle in the second quarter of 2026, up 1% from a year earlier and a record for the period, according to data released Tuesday by IBGE, Brazil’s statistics agency. Total carcass weight rose 3% to another record.
The figure most closely watched by the market, however, was female slaughter. The number of cows and heifers sent to slaughter fell 1.88% from a year earlier, while females’ share of total slaughter declined to 49%.
That pushed the 12-month moving average to 46.9%, Bradesco BBI analysts Henrique Brustolin and Giovanni D’Ottaviano wrote in a Tuesday report. The level remains high but was 10 basis points below the first quarter of 2026.
The ratio is still well above its 15-year historical average of 42.5%. Even so, the second-quarter decline marked a change in direction: it was the first time since 2021 that female slaughter had fallen in the period, according to Agrifatto Chief Executive Officer Lygia Pimentel.
“It is a strong indication that we are starting to reverse meat availability,” Pimentel told The AgriBiz.
Female slaughter had steadily increased its share of the total since late 2021, and the second quarter provided the first clear evidence that the trend may be starting to reverse, Bradesco BBI said.
The bank pointed to another sign of a turning cycle: ranchers retained females even as the industry rushed to export beef to China and fill import quotas.
“With this period of stronger immediate demand now behind us, we expect retention to intensify from here,” the analysts said.
The ratio between calf prices and finished-cattle prices has risen 10% this year to the highest level since 2021, according to BBI. That creates a stronger incentive for ranchers to retain breeding females and rebuild herds, reinforcing the shift in the cattle cycle.
Pimentel cautioned that the data should not be viewed in isolation, given the length of the herd-liquidation phase and the still-high share of females in total slaughter.
Female slaughter will need to continue declining in coming months for the reversal of the cattle cycle to become firmly established, she said.
Costlier Cattle
Bradesco BBI expects the shift to make conditions more challenging for beef processors.
Cattle prices “already reflect tighter supply for the second half,” the bank said. Finished-cattle prices are up 9% this year and 13% over the past 12 months, likely already reflecting some reduction in animal availability.
Brazilian cattle prices remain below those in other major producing countries, leaving “ample room for appreciation as supply tightens,” the analysts said.
That would add pressure to meatpackers’ financial performance. A smaller supply of slaughter-ready cattle means higher prices per arroba — the 15-kilogram pricing unit commonly used in Brazil’s cattle market — increasing working-capital needs and potentially squeezing margins.
The tighter cattle cycle also weighs on the relative appeal of meatpacker shares, according to BBI. The bank said it prefers JBS, whose Brazilian beef operations account for about 15% of revenue, and has neutral recommendations on MBRF, where Brazilian beef represents 12% of revenue, and Minerva, which derives 56% of revenue from Brazil.
One factor could partly offset the decline in cattle availability: heavier animals.
Average slaughter weight rose about 1.6% from a year earlier, which BBI attributed to “continued improvements in cattle feeding — including the use of dried distillers grains, or DDG — that can partially offset lower animal availability.”
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
